Well it goes a little something like this.
We are one of the only countries in the world to offer a motorplan in the form of how we have motorplan.
We are also one of the countries in the world that drive our cars over 100,000 km. the rest of the world replaced the car at 40,000 or 60,000 cause the cars are cheap/disposable
The calculations are done based on the amount of field failures per model, and average price to repair.
They can easily determine, price the stuff that they know is going need to be done, brakes ect those are easy, next take the average failures of say a gearbox on your specific model, and if it has a high probility of failing, ad costs for replacement, and so it carries on.
And you do get those where things go really realy wrong, say on an M3, tthen they need to work in so that you could help pay for it too.