discussion G80/G82 - M3/M4 sales

[TBP88]

Depreciation is a double edged sword, mostly it affects those who buy brand new in the BMW stable, for other bargain hunters they get a value out of buying the M3/M4 a few years later, its a win win for the next buyer, imagine if that same BMW held its value ? I guess then we can't cry to much about BMW and depreciation! The Porsche motor plans are very sticky as well I don't see value in buying one without a plan unless you have loads of cash floating around.

As for looks all Porsche's looks the same to me, but I can certainly tell the difference between a 320i and m3.

To your point though you almost never going to take these cars to the track, which is why I would take a family sedan with performance levels that could match Porsche, win a few robot races now and then, take the whole family on a Sunday drive and still come back smiling. Maybe when all my kids leave the house will a 2 door Porsche look like value.

Agreed that every Porsche looks very familial (at least in the 911/cayman/boxster range) but the point is, they all look like a purpose built sportscar (of various levels - a GT2 definitely is another level of look to a base 911 C2S).

Depreciation isn't double edged - it only hits the new buyer, the 2nd hand buyer is a big winner (unless the car then depreciates *even more*) - to use an example of myself, I paid +-R200k, spent another R60k or so sorting out issues so was R260k all in, 4yrs ago, on a car that new, in 2007 was around R650k, so the new buyer in 07 lost +-R400k in depreciation alone.

Today the car is probably worth around R250k I'd guess. So my expenses have all been in running the car (maintaining/tyres/petrol etc), not in depreciation. This is why BMWs typically bottom out and then reverse - they get so cheap that some become abused and destroyed (think of the range of prices E46M3s go for, a dog one is probably a R120-140k car, a great example maybe R700k+?).

Dunno, Merc has had this issue for decades - look at SL AMG depreciation back to the early 2000s - the cars are expensive as hell because they are immense machines for their time, great tech, great performance. But the post-motorplan maintaining is horrendously expensive and they become worth, pretty much, nothing. You can get an old SL55AMG for like R200k now.

The premium-but-not-elite brands (Merc, BMW, Audi, Lexus etc.) simply do not have the brand cache that makes their cars immune to depreciation. So while some guys might just not care about how much their R2m BMW M4 depreciates (lol at him), for any smart consumer the fact that one car will lose 10% value a year and another probably 3-5% value a year is a *huge* consideration, at R2m you're talking a R140k+ a year saving... Unless you're literally in the "money has no meaning to me" category of wealth (in which case, why are you only looking at an M3/4) then R10k a month of loss over a 3-5yr period isn't just play-play.

I guess for me, it all just seems sad. As a kid the M3 was *THE* realistic dream car. Back in the mid00s a decent professional in their early career could stretch and get into an M3. Today? What sort of monthly income do you need to be making to debt yourself on a R2m depreciating car? This is what all these brands have just missed and why I'm hoping the next M2 has BMW individual options on it. If it does and it's a similarish car to the outgoing model I'll be a very interested customer - assuming it isn't R1.5m+!!!

 

[stephen]

I'm certainly not in the money has no meaning level of wealth and I spent 2.1 mill on a new M3 knowing full well its financial value is gonna drop like a ton of bricks over the next few years. My point is though, I dont care. If you're looking at vehicle purchases purely (or primarily) from a financial view point then we clearly see cars of this caliber / price point very differently. They're not about financial gain or loss but purely and solely fun.

Sounds to me your primary reason/ motivation when purchasing a vehicle is to find a bargain. Are you getting something that truly makes you happy when numbers are your primary concern?

Again, a car purchase to me isn't about numbers or spreadsheets or how much I may lose or prevent myself from losing in the future.

Maybe I'm not a smart consumer lol...

 

[stephen]

To add to my very off topic rant above. Cars have always been my passion, it's what keeps me motivated in life. Having a nice car or two in the driveway makes up for those shitty days when you're grinding your ass off and going seemingly nowhere.

Waking up at 4am on a Saturday morning and going for a blast, well that makes up for the depreciation and the high cost of new ownership.

Will I sell the m3 in a year to two years time, yeah probably. Will the next buyer get a bargain, most likely. Will I have enjoyed every minute of ownership, hell yes! Thats worth every cent to me.

 

[Quick///M]

To add to my very off topic rant above. Cars have always been my passion, it's what keeps me motivated in life. Having a nice car or two in the driveway makes up for those shitty days when you're grinding your ass off and going seemingly nowhere.

Waking up at 4am on a Saturday morning and going for a blast, well that makes up for the depreciation and the high cost of new ownership.

Will I sell the m3 in a year to two years time, yeah probably. Will the next buyer get a bargain, most likely. Will I have enjoyed every minute of ownership, hell yes! Thats worth every cent to me.

Well said bud, all the calculations put me to sleep buy thing for enjoyment.

 

[TBP88]

I guess we just see this differently. I too drive a 15l/100km 6cyl gas guzzler that's too low, too noisy and only has 2 seats! I'm far from the most practical car buyer (my previous 2 cars were Alfa Romeos!!!). I just am not in a place in my life where I could stomach that sort of depreciation knock, *regardless* of the quality. Even if the M4 was objectively better than the 911 (and I'm not even close to convinced it is) I think the depreciation would make it too expensive. Given that it's at best on par, the depreciation makes it ruinious.

Of course, buying a car beyond around the R500-R700k point (new anyway) is nothing but a heart>head decision. That's why I've avoided spending too long discussing the look of the car. - it's purely subjective. But there are objective aspects, depreciation, price, performance, interior quality etc can all be to some extent measured - and it's here where I think the M4 falls short.

As I said, from the emotive point of view what hurts is that the M4 is no longer aspirational in any meaningful way - are 13yr old kids getting into cars going to see an R2m+ price tag BMW and dream of owning one one day like I did with the E46M3? BMW used to represent accessible, quality, fun cars. Can you really say that BMW is accessible when the only way to get a new BMW (for a young professional) is to take on some outrageous finance deal? As pricey as these M cars are I shudder at the thought of some base 320i with options being north of R1m, the floor value on that car is essentially 0, at least the M will always be a special and rare vehicle.

@stephen hope you can see I'm less of a hater of your car specifically! (even if it comes off that way!) More just sad that it represents a motoring future that's not one most can access!

 

[TurboLlew]

Yeah not everything has to make sense or be a bargain so I do agree. Sometimes if you have to live a little you should allow yourself to. Spec is a big deal on these cars: there are certain colour combos or feature combos that you know you might never find again or which push you to making a call (even forcing you into buying new). This is the reason despite loving porsches, I just never found one in that right spec for me.

That being said, there is no reason you can't have both or at least settle somewhere in between. I love the idea of getting a bargain if I can... but the "if I can" is the problem when you're spending a lot and your criteria are much less forgiving than if you were shopping at eg 500K and 'could live with' some compromises.

Depreciation for me is personally a non-issue. A car kept in the right condition will always be in demand and unless you hit the jackpot (current car market notwithstanding where the rising tide raised all the ships), there will ALWAYS be depreciation of some kind. There are guys who spend their money on much more expensive alcohol than I do, women, brothels, gambling... I can deal with some depreciation on something that delivers another kind of experience.

Investment is also a non-issue - Experience trumps everything when you pass a certain point. I understand there are guys that want to see everything in terms of an investment. If you already have a house or two and plenty of investments and money overseas etc etc then who cares? This is the problem with cars and houses: You have NO IDEA who has bought cash, what the rest of their investments look like or what shape they are in otherwise... These and holidays are amongst the only visible cues for most people as to how others "are doing in life" and some chase it at their peril... make no mistake there are plenty of bigger fish out there than guys spending R1.5 or R2.5 or even R3.5M on cars...

Practicality: if the car is practical as a side-effect of the experience great. I don't think anyone is buying an M3 "because the plucky little thing is as fast as a Porsche" LOL. That was true when it was literally half the price of the equivalent porsche - not now that it is the same price as the entry level ones and still about the same (or slightly better/worse on certain things) performance wise...

Whether everyone who says these things is telling the truth or not is another matter entirely... the tide is undeniably going out and we will see who has been swimming naked soon enough...

 

[VinceM]

Saw a lime green M4 one this past weekend in the estate. If you saw it on paper, you’d probably puke,

In flesh, a totally different story! it’s super gorgeous! Sound superb!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[TBP88]

Yeah not everything has to make sense or be a bargain so I do agree. Sometimes if you have to live a little you should allow yourself to. Spec is a big deal on these cars: there are certain colour combos or feature combos that you know you might never find again or which push you to making a call (even forcing you into buying new). This is the reason despite loving porsches, I just never found one in that right spec for me.

That being said, there is no reason you can't have both or at least settle somewhere in between. I love the idea of getting a bargain if I can... but the "if I can" is the problem when you're spending a lot and your criteria are much less forgiving than if you were shopping at eg 500K and 'could live with' some compromises.

Depreciation for me is personally a non-issue. A car kept in the right condition will always be in demand and unless you hit the jackpot (current car market notwithstanding where the rising tide raised all the ships), there will ALWAYS be depreciation of some kind. There are guys who spend their money on much more expensive alcohol than I do, women, brothels, gambling... I can deal with some depreciation on something that delivers another kind of experience.

Investment is also a non-issue - Experience trumps everything when you pass a certain point. I understand there are guys that want to see everything in terms of an investment. If you already have a house or two and plenty of investments and money overseas etc etc then who cares? This is the problem with cars and houses: You have NO IDEA who has bought cash, what the rest of their investments look like or what shape they are in otherwise... These and holidays are amongst the only visible cues for most people as to how others "are doing in life" and some chase it at their peril... make no mistake there are plenty of bigger fish out there than guys spending R1.5 or R2.5 or even R3.5M on cars...

Practicality: if the car is practical as a side-effect of the experience great. I don't think anyone is buying an M3 "because the plucky little thing is as fast as a Porsche" LOL. That was true when it was literally half the price of the equivalent porsche - not now that it is the same price as the entry level ones and still about the same (or slightly better/worse on certain things) performance wise...

Whether everyone who says these things is telling the truth or not is another matter entirely... the tide is undeniably going out and we will see who has been swimming naked soon enough...

I wonder if the tide *is* undeniably going out though... Rate hikes are coming over the next 2-3yrs - maybe there'll be some bargains in 2026 if they push through a few more than consumers expect (just to give anyone shopping a headsup, the market is pricing in around 150bp of hikes this yr, and another 100bp next!) - pay those debts up!

 

[TurboLlew]

I wonder if the tide *is* undeniably going out though... Rate hikes are coming over the next 2-3yrs - maybe there'll be some bargains in 2026 if they push through a few more than consumers expect (just to give anyone shopping a headsup, the market is pricing in around 150bp of hikes this yr, and another 100bp next!) - pay those debts up!

The tide of consumers being able to comfortably afford these is definitely going out... not necessarily the car prices themselves. There are already signs of it if you see the stock that became available in December (and how many cars were on consignment). I have a feeling this will continue with every subsequent rate hike that is coming. If you have been patiently waiting, the time is coming to snap something up (you still have to be quick and it won't be 'cheap' but it will be a 'bargain' relatively speaking LOL...)

 

[stephen]

I guess we just see this differently. I too drive a 15l/100km 6cyl gas guzzler that's too low, too noisy and only has 2 seats! I'm far from the most practical car buyer (my previous 2 cars were Alfa Romeos!!!). I just am not in a place in my life where I could stomach that sort of depreciation knock, *regardless* of the quality. Even if the M4 was objectively better than the 911 (and I'm not even close to convinced it is) I think the depreciation would make it too expensive. Given that it's at best on par, the depreciation makes it ruinious.

Of course, buying a car beyond around the R500-R700k point (new anyway) is nothing but a heart>head decision. That's why I've avoided spending too long discussing the look of the car. - it's purely subjective. But there are objective aspects, depreciation, price, performance, interior quality etc can all be to some extent measured - and it's here where I think the M4 falls short.

As I said, from the emotive point of view what hurts is that the M4 is no longer aspirational in any meaningful way - are 13yr old kids getting into cars going to see an R2m+ price tag BMW and dream of owning one one day like I did with the E46M3? BMW used to represent accessible, quality, fun cars. Can you really say that BMW is accessible when the only way to get a new BMW (for a young professional) is to take on some outrageous finance deal? As pricey as these M cars are I shudder at the thought of some base 320i with options being north of R1m, the floor value on that car is essentially 0, at least the M will always be a special and rare vehicle.

@stephen hope you can see I'm less of a hater of your car specifically! (even if it comes off that way!) More just sad that it represents a motoring future that's not one most can access!

Yeah i get your meaning man, makes sense in that BMW used to represent the idea of super car performance without the price tag. Saying that wat does 2 bar get you these days in the more exotic range? Not much lol

Takes me back to this Car and Driver magazine ad, which kinda sums up your point

 

[osiris]

Times have changed drastically compared to when we were all kids back in the day dreaming of owning these cars.

Now days 22 year old's are driving cars like this and people are driving cars that they simply cannot afford however the new financial system is allowing them to do so. This has changed the game big time! This is driving the instant gratification problem so far north that it has destroyed peoples perspectives of what a nice car represents in ones life.

When allot of us were kids "80's babies and older", people who drove expensive cars back then drove them because they were literally doing well in life! The system didn't allow you to drive something you couldn't afford. There was no such thing as a 72month no deposit with 65% residual options available!

The point I am trying to make here is that when things are easily available they no longer have the same value or appeal, The kids of today don't look at the new M3/M4 and dream about owning that particular one when they grow up, It doesn't push them to try do well in life to one day own such a car.

There is a new M3/M4 out every second month these days and around 15 different versions of that car too 🤣 When we were kids there was 325is then many years later a E36 M3 2/4 door, then many years later the E46 M3 with the M3 CSL being super "Rich Persons car" and a thing that dreams were made of. It was such a rare sight to see that car that you felt seriously privileged if you did see one. Now days you just go to a random car meet or a BMW fanatics meet and the majority of cars are M3's M2's and 4's etc with idiots revving the shit out of them for hours to see who can make the loudest pops and bangs, followed by a bunch of clutch plates doing burnouts and donuts with the odd rubberneck throwing his M4 into a curb. These things just didn't happen when I was a kid. The dude that owned that super rare E46 M3 CSL didn't come out revving it and doing burnouts in front of all the little kids with their cellphones to put on Instagram for the most likes ("Not that this was an option back then anyways"). But you get my point.

These cars no longer represent how well someone has done in life. People earning very small salaries are driving very fancy cars because the system allows it. So what is there to aspire to these days really?

 

[TBP88]

Times have changed drastically compared to when we were all kids back in the day dreaming of owning these cars.

Now days 22 year old's are driving cars like this and people are driving cars that they simply cannot afford however the new financial system is allowing them to do so. This has changed the game big time! This is driving the instant gratification problem so far north that it has destroyed peoples perspectives of what a nice car represents in ones life.

When allot of us were kids "80's babies and older", people who drove expensive cars back then drove them because they were literally doing well in life! The system didn't allow you to drive something you couldn't afford. There was no such thing as a 72month no deposit with 65% residual options available!

The point I am trying to make here is that when things are easily available they no longer have the same value or appeal, The kids of today don't look at the new M3/M4 and dream about owning that particular one when they grow up, It doesn't push them to try do well in life to one day own such a car.

There is a new M3/M4 out every second month these days and around 15 different versions of that car too 🤣 When we were kids there was 325is then many years later a E36 M3 2/4 door, then many years later the E46 M3 with the M3 CSL being super "Rich Persons car" and a thing that dreams were made of. It was such a rare sight to see that car that you felt seriously privileged if you did see one. Now days you just go to a random car meet or a BMW fanatics meet and the majority of cars are M3's M2's and 4's etc with idiots revving the shit out of them for hours to see who can make the loudest pops and bangs, followed by a bunch of clutch plates doing burnouts and donuts with the odd rubberneck throwing his M4 into a curb. These things just didn't happen when I was a kid. The dude that owned that super rare E46 M3 CSL didn't come out revving it and doing burnouts in front of all the little kids with their cellphones to put on Instagram for the most likes ("Not that this was an option back then anyways"). But you get my point.

These cars no longer represent how well someone has done in life. People earning very small salaries are driving very fancy cars because the system allows it. So what is there to aspire to these days really?

I think you're right to an extent but also wrong - if people really couldn't afford the cars, the banks wouldn't be extending the credit. At the end of the day the bank won't give you credit if they don't think you can repay the loan - their entire business model is build on your ability to repay the loan...

So one aspect is the accessibility of easy credit, but another is also the reality that a lot of people do just have a lot of money now... Shit like crypto, access to government contractual money and high paying corporate jobs exist in a way that they didn't 20yrs ago. 20yrs ago to be a hedge fund manager you'd have been mid-40s, with CFA and a degree or two behind your name with 10+yrs of experience at least. Now guys with 5yrs experience are managing a few billion. These guys exist and there are more of them. Added to that the growth in family money, if your folks were lucky enough to own (say) a few nice properties in cape town at the turn of the millenium when you were 15yrs old, today you're likely sitting on an inheritance worth in excess of R100m.

So there's money floating around the system, for sure.

I do think there is overindebtedness, but trust me, SA is *NOWHERE NEAR* as bad as places like the US, if you think a few interest rate hikes will hurt our consumers a serious interest hiking cycle in the US could legitimately nuke their economy entirely.

 

[osiris]

I think you're right to an extent but also wrong - if people really couldn't afford the cars, the banks wouldn't be extending the credit. At the end of the day the bank won't give you credit if they don't think you can repay the loan - their entire business model is build on your ability to repay the loan...

So one aspect is the accessibility of easy credit, but another is also the reality that a lot of people do just have a lot of money now... Shit like crypto, access to government contractual money and high paying corporate jobs exist in a way that they didn't 20yrs ago. 20yrs ago to be a hedge fund manager you'd have been mid-40s, with CFA and a degree or two behind your name with 10+yrs of experience at least. Now guys with 5yrs experience are managing a few billion. These guys exist and there are more of them. Added to that the growth in family money, if your folks were lucky enough to own (say) a few nice properties in cape town at the turn of the millenium when you were 15yrs old, today you're likely sitting on an inheritance worth in excess of R100m.

So there's money floating around the system, for sure.

I do think there is overindebtedness, but trust me, SA is *NOWHERE NEAR* as bad as places like the US, if you think a few interest rate hikes will hurt our consumers a serious interest hiking cycle in the US could legitimately nuke their economy entirely.

I understand where you're coming from but I have personally been at a dealership quite a few years back, I think in 2014 or so wanting to get a second hand car. The salesmen and I went through the figures and at the time after all my expenses and the potential new car repayment I would have at the time only been left with around 12k for the rest of the month which for me personally was crazy so I said no to buying the car. The salesmen was dumbstruck and insisted this is allot of cash to be left with after everything and that allot of his customers were left with arounds 1k - 3k after all expenses including the car repayment, This to me is pure financial stupidity in the highest degree. I am by no means very good with money or good at giving financial advice but I have learned a thing or two from some dumb mistakes in my younger years 🤣

Fact is the bank will give you a loan and credit cards as long as you are earning a salary and they will give you as many as your salary can cover. if that leaves you eating 2min noodles everyday for breakfast lunch and supper they don't care.

The truth of the matter is that the system allows people to get into major debt according to what they earn. It's easy to buy an expensive car these days but that does not mean you can afford it! For me personally if you buy an expensive car and you can't afford to put tires on the car then you simply cannot afford the car, let alone replacing parts when its out of motor-plan or warranty.

I do understand that allot of people do have big cash these days to buy very expensive cars/toys, the New M3 and M4 even on residual etc is still extremely expensive for most people but the crux of my argument is that due to the nature of the financial system these days cars like this are no longer a young kids desire, it is no longer the driving force behind him/her trying to do well in school to one day be able to afford that car. Times have changed, It's just too easy to get expensive nice stuff that we no longer appreciate it like we used to. Now people are like well I could get a Porsche but I will stick with the BMW for so and so reason. When I was a kid a Porsche was a damn super car that only the rich could afford 🤣 If you went to a public school there were no parent's rocking up in a Porsche to drop off their kids...

 

[individj]

there are dealerships financing cars themselves without the checks or requirements the banks have.

 

[TBP88]

there are dealerships financing cars themselves without the checks or requirements the banks have.

I obviously can't comment on where this is happening, but unless the dealer itself is an FSP (doubt...) this would be illegal. I'd LOVE to go get a car there because if I default they wouldn't be able to say anything to me about it.

The financial services sector is interconnected but at the end of the day it mostly flows back to the bank and is then sold back to the investment public (i.e. your pension). Remember, one persons liability is anothers asset...

 

[individj]

well they have a company linked to them and they charge higher interest rates

 

[AshG108]

I obviously can't comment on where this is happening, but unless the dealer itself is an FSP (doubt...) this would be illegal. I'd LOVE to go get a car there because if I default they wouldn't be able to say anything to me about it.

The financial services sector is interconnected but at the end of the day it mostly flows back to the bank and is then sold back to the investment public (i.e. your pension). Remember, one persons liability is anothers asset...

I worked for a Credit Bureau and designed the scorecards that are applied when applying for loans and finance. Many of those are still in use today, the NCA drove the credit vetting and bill to pass to ensure over-debted consumers are no longer given relief. That lasted only 3 years before people found the loopholes and still exploit those loopholes till today as well.

You can have any FSP, go to them and apply for credit and then default and who ends with the crap...you! a salesman wont bother unless you find a Unicorn selling a car...same with cellphone contracts etc.

Many syndicates running around where things are happening irrespective of the law and what has been put into place. There are tons of people with wrecked lives due to these type of deals. Go apply for credit and see what you get approved for...and in your head you know your real spend and see the gap...its pretty large still.

 

[TurboLlew]

there are dealerships financing cars themselves without the checks or requirements the banks have.

These are usually at the lower end of the market and are basically loan sharks (if not outright scammers). The amount of interest you pay is insane. There are no credit checks, "blacklisted welcome" and while there might be no recourse legally, the reality is the recourse will be in the form of broken limbs followed by potentially worse consequences...

I think about how willing a bank is to extend credit and it terrifies me... now imagine this institution in this kind of environment is not giving you credit... is that not a red flag or sign that you should MAYBE not take a car out at an insane rate and with the implication that your life may be in danger if something went south? You are willingly then entering a world where the 'normal' rules don't apply at your peril

 

[TurboLlew]

I worked for a Credit Bureau and designed the scorecards that are applied when applying for loans and finance. Many of those are still in use today, the NCA drove the credit vetting and bill to pass to ensure over-debted consumers are no longer given relief. That lasted only 3 years before people found the loopholes and still exploit those loopholes till today as well.

You can have any FSP, go to them and apply for credit and then default and who ends with the crap...you! a salesman wont bother unless you find a Unicorn selling a car...same with cellphone contracts etc.

Many syndicates running around where things are happening irrespective of the law and what has been put into place. There are tons of people with wrecked lives due to these type of deals. Go apply for credit and see what you get approved for...and in your head you know your real spend and see the gap...its pretty large still.

Nobody is your friend in the chain of parting you from your money. The turnover of vehicles and houses via auction houses should be enough proof to anyone here that the house always wins if not in the form of credit then the process itself. People like AshG here are paid lots of money to create models, ensure risk is balanced and take hundreds of factors into account that we are not necessarily privy to... Try applying for finance via a private bank: they will offer you (eg on a house) MILLIONS less than one of the big banks because the criteria are so different. Same with cars: they don't finance anything under the sun (there are rules around age of the vehicle vs. how long you're financing for etc) and that is how you end up with much better rates - it is all risk at the end of the day.... for everyone involved.

As with anything in life, knowing your own position is vital. If one realistically thinks one can survive with R1000 left over at the end of one's commitments (and saving nothing) then lessons will be learned...

We can vilify financial institutions all we want but they are angels in comparison to those syndicates/loan sharks/organised crime that prey on the blacklisted and keep them where they are. In many cases, they will not approve you for things unless YOU actually lie on that app.

 

[individj]

These are usually at the lower end of the market and are basically loan sharks (if not outright scammers). The amount of interest you pay is insane. There are no credit checks, "blacklisted welcome" and while there might be no recourse legally, the reality is the recourse will be in the form of broken limbs followed by potentially worse consequences...

I think about how willing a bank is to extend credit and it terrifies me... now imagine this institution in this kind of environment is not giving you credit... is that not a red flag or sign that you should MAYBE not take a car out at an insane rate and with the implication that your life may be in danger if something went south? You are willingly then entering a world where the 'normal' rules don't apply at your peril

youll be surprised at the vehicles offered and some of these spots have been in business for a longggg time...so the person i know bought a GTI7 and their interest was 13%...its a close friend and i was asking how its possible that they got finance...they showed me the company linked to the dealership...