discussion Good or bad time to buy?

[GravityLee]

I'm thinking about replacing one of my cars - not urgent and I could wait 6/12 months easily.

I've been having a look at F80/82 used prices, and they are a lot more than what I expected given that the new gen is out. Same for F10 M5.

Any thoughts on the market at the moment, and whether now is a good time to buy, or will waiting see some price drops (if that's even a possibility in SA market).

 

[TurboLlew]

I don't think there will be price drops of any significance anytime soon... certainly not until the end of the year when we will see just how much unsold 'new' stock manufacturers are sitting with and how much they are willing to fire-sale them for.

The new car prices IMHO are keeping the used car pricing fairly high. Even trade pricing is not bad at all - we got a trade evaluation on the wife's C200 last week which was nearly the same as what we paid for it almost 2 years ago and with 35000km less... sounds fantastic until you realise to replace it like for like (same shape and options car, just with zero miles) is now R950K and therein lies the problem.

Does she trade her C200 with 39000km for now an A class (which is a big step down except on infotainment) and still pay in 150-200K or perhaps wait for the new C which is going to be over R1M after options (and finance R5-600K to get there)... perhaps she stretches into a C43 or GLE or E or CLS now (if you're going to end up spending R1M in a year's time on a basic car, why not just spend it now on a more special one that will be out of reach in a year). Many car buyers will face similar choices. The smartest is just to probably hang on to what you have than indebting yourself further for something like this.

There will surely be a situation in the next year or two where there is a large gulf between new car prices (like R1.7M for a 340i) and used cars as the used cars simply put on too much mileage to 'fill in the gaps' in pricing as they are currently doing. The down trading from supercars/Porsches to M/B/A is going to also stop at some point as will the down-trading from the germans to Koreans and smaller euro brands.

Personally it has been fascinating to see this happening since the dynamics are similar to other much smaller consumer goods (albeit different in scale) and I will be interested to see if the end results are similar as well.

 

[TBP88]

I think the M3/4 holds value better than M5 generally (different when you're talking mint E39s or E34s of course).

But yeah, the F80/2 will still depreciate more from where they are now - a 2yr old one with decent mileage is around the R1m point now. But of course as they get older the sorts of examples you find will be worse - you can look around here at threads of how bad BMW service is on these cars, god only knows what happens when they're off plan and people start cutting corners on fixing them (when corners are being cut while on plan it's bad enough already)...

 

[GravityLee]

Thanks Llew, agree with the above.

The F80/2 definitely seems to be holding value very well - despite so many available, and pricing generally in line on same MY F10/F13 M models (slightly higher mileage though).

 

[Dees_13]

Many car buyers will face similar choices. The smartest is just to probably hang on to what you have than indebting yourself further for something like this.

This is exactly what I am doing right now. Would love to buy something else but just can't find it in me to change my cars. Can't replace my current value for value. And spending 600k + more on top of my trade in is sickening. Nothing wrong with my cars so rather keep them for a bit

 

[Nomad77]

Definitely agree with what's been said. People can't afford new cars so used cars are going for quite high prices. I can't speak for the M cars as I'm looking at the lower end of the BMW range but it does seem unlikely prices will come down any time soon