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PWC SA Economic Outlook
#1
So this was posted earlier today. Though I have slides, I cannot post them on here from the CitiBank economist presentation I had previously mentioned. However, these comments from PWC align very closely to the overall message.

Full article here: https://businesstech.co.za/news/governme...ears-time/

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As I mentioned in other threads (and as many found to be quite disturbing) the reality is that it is the ANC that needs to pull South Africa out of its mess and (IMHO) it was Ramaphosa who had or has the best chance of doing this. There is no time to hope an opposition party is going to win by a landslide... and take over government... AND fix all the issues.

Either way, we have no opposition left and it seems opposition across the world is failing (Democrats in the US don't seem to do anything other than the opposite of what Trump is doing... here in SA we have the DA that stands for the same: Pointing out the obvious and Anti ruling party, but if you asked me what they stand for, I have no idea... where I live it is just more sophisticated corruption with the ward councillor in the pockets of developers and service delivery getting worse and worse). In the UK, they would rather vote for BoJo who stood for something than Corbyn who avoided the elephant in the room...

Anyway other highlights worth mentioning from elsewhere:

Massive migration from other provinces to Gauteng and Western Cape with significant migration into KZN - these are both the jobless as well as those seeking better pay/safer conditions

Skilled unemployment close to 25% (so even though there are skills shortages, there is the wrong mix, and if there is a skills shortage identified by government there is a very real possibility that it is not economically viable to implement at the moment in terms of scaling up existing operations or starting new ones)

Unskilled unemployment past 50%

The stats only tell part of the story in terms of failing businesses. The smallest/weakest are dead, but the stronger ones are pulling back spending to the degree that your larger companies supplying them are feeling it. Owners are also cutting their own spending to keep their businesses afloat

Taxpayers are not going to revolt (it is too tightly controlled of a system to make this happen anyway). Taxpayers are instead fleeing...
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#2
This is why I am leaving this year too...What opportunities are left here for the honest working man/business owner.
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#3
Not a complete solution, but a step in the right direction, would be for the ANC to be tough with Cosatu and allow them to break free and form a new party. Without the trade union noose around SA government, real change can happen.
The unionists (and the super left wing) will protest and there will definitely be collateral damage (expect trucks blocking roads, people burning property, etc.), but that pain is nothing in comparison to a situation where we need IMF assistance.

We need a strong leader who will be tough and resilient.
Ramaphosa is neither.
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#4
The reality is that it took almost a decade of looting by Zuma and his cronies which leaves SA in this current situation so it will probably take at least the same time to fix the mess. To think that Ramaphosa was going to come in and change things overnight is naivety on his part and “the experts”. There is always a lag in actions taken so far and seeing the results thereof. I do hope that the findings from the Zondo commission leads to conviction of all those implicated.
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#5
Just came across this post.
It seems we are even worst off than the worst predicted.
This lockdown has caused irreversible damage.
It’s continuing is absolute criminal. There is going to be a mess that even zim would be very proud of.
Scary scary times.
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#6
In before 5G is blamed.
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#7
What’s take on all the 5g propaganda ? False or true ?
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#8
10 Years of looting, two downgrades below junk, COVID-19 unleashed on the planet and then lockdown on us. Yes it is worse than anyone ever expected I think.

That said, even now there are people trying to find opportunities (or rather behaving opportunistically) and those that believe that we will be back to the normal exchange rate post Coronavirus. Remember these were the same folks saying that the 'downgrade was already priced into the Rand'...

IMHO 5G is to blame only in terms of it connecting idiots and liars to one another at an even faster rate than 4G, and spreading misinformation about everything from the virus itself to the illuminati.

Have we learned nothing from the effects of the various elections that have been meddled with around the world, Russian troll farms and Chinese propaganda by now? We are influenced by these obvious false conspiracy theories and pieces of propaganda but ignore what we have learned from what has actually been proven to be true. Unfortunately rather than becoming more discerning with information, people would rather now believe that ANYTHING that they read is true... however idiotic.

I have a background in science (and not facebook science...) albeit from quite a long time ago now. The misrepresentation of even scientific journals or the words of scientists is mindblowing. At the same time, the belief in crackpots with fringe views is justified 'because they are scientists'.

We were in a post-truth society but now we are also post-logic and post-thinking... which I find terrifying personally. Hey, maybe it's the new world order influencing things after all?
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#9
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnEUVIClZvU


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#10
(09-05-2020, 04:40 PM)Quintin140 Wrote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnEUVIClZvU


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I really felt like the president had made the right decision at the start of this.

Unfortunately as soon as the ministers got involved it was chaos.

Last week I went to builders and got some supplies. I went earlier today to get THOSE SAME supplies. They said they couldn't sell it anymore. They had no idea why - they just were told they suddenly couldn't. Same with stores... you might have bought something last week that they can't sell this week despite it being right in front of you.

The truth is though that the hospitals and doctors are probably not ready hence we are in this situation.

This is all quite academic for some of us though who are still getting some money in: it is orders of magnitude worse for others. 

Practically this is what the idiocy of lockdown level 4 means for me: Last week I experienced my own pure chaos. I documented some of the 'new normal' on instagram.

2 KIDS: both requiring school work to be done and online lessons: The school expects you to be a half decent teacher
NO WIFE - she had to go to work (and I have to use Vital Oxide when she returns - a hospital grade disinfectant). This is to reverse her 20% pay cut for having an almost full workload but just from home (and at great data and voice expense since she was running the clinic/research unit remotely).
NO HELP AT ALL - because nannies and domestic workers are only allowed to return as live-in (and nobody will sell a bed to me now). My complex will not allow anyone in.
FULL WORKLOAD - If not worse - I had to listen to a bunch of people without these issues complain about absolute non-issues and joke about how people were doing nothing these past few weeks. Again, you're expected to deliver perfect results.
COOKING: for two seemingly starving kids that are constantly hungry or thirsty or (literally) needing their backsides wiped during all of this.
CLEANING: apart from an endless supply of laundry and dishes, the "science experiment" for my daughter messed virtually the entire bottom floor of my house as kids will be kids

This was manageable with my wife around. It doesn't even matter if she helps after she is back (spoiler alert: nobody wants to work after a full day of work and they are greeted by hospital disinfectant and steam cleaning their seat and steering wheel). They are trialing a low-touch after after the past week so hoping next week is better.

You might see why I needed some of the retail therapy in the detailing thread. Yes all these are all first-world problems and many have it worse - but that doesn't mean it isn't impacting my life.

Unfortunately there is no end to this even if they had to end lockdown right now (so many have lost their jobs, so many face a reality where their customers cannot pay or are liquidating, we have a severely depressed travel and tourism industry, broken manufacturing and from a corporate perspective I am afraid we will have to live with reduced salaries and a depressed economy with ever-worsening rand/dollar/euro for the foreseeable future.
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#11
So, from an informed perspective Llew, when do you think normality will return? What do the banks currently predict, as a timeline for return to pre covid 19 spending?
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#12
We will NEVER return to pre covid spending. Economy has generally been in a decline for decades, and will continue as such, just at a new much lower base.

As an example, just yesterday I was talking to a DP in the motor trade world. Prices are going up. Most leads turn to dust. They are very concerned.
There is closing en masses expected in the trade.

Our unemployment figures are near the highest in the world. The majority of those laid off will never find work again.
We are JUNK status with little to no hope of foreign investments coming in.

I would also like to hear other people’s opinions .
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#13
(22-05-2020, 09:25 PM)Marchand@HPFactory Wrote: So, from an informed perspective Llew, when do you think normality will return? What do the banks currently predict, as a timeline for return to pre covid 19 spending?

What we knew as normal is gone forever... from a social interaction perspective but also from an economic point of view. We might get close to it again.

Everyone is getting excited about lower interest rates... agents and dealers are punting deals and advising on what the market is doing (despite being clueless).

To answer your question, there are educated guesses at late 2023 to be back to flat (off a much lower base than now because there will be declines in 20/21/22)

The rest of the world is in a similar situation with the exception that they have structures and the right foundation to recover and return to growth. We have this misguided notion that we can somehow benefit from the global turmoil by the time we get to the end of the tunnel, but I think the past weeks have shown otherwise.

At this point though it is all speculation. The double or triple whammy we are seeing here has never quite been seen before. It isn't like a historic market crash where you can have some kind of predictability.

Prepare to lose a job and like veteran says, never be employed by a company again... not because of BEE or downsizing, but rather because companies die or exit markets like ours. Many companies I worked for over the years were burning money in SA due to potential... whitespace expansion where big brother is paying for most of the operation or accepting losses for 4 or 5 years will be a thing of the past for sure as they fix their home markets, fix their strong ones and regroup.  That doesnt mean there will be no opportunities... or you will be making zero... just that you will have to adapt to another new normal (after this covid one is in place and we deal with the aftermath).
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#14
(Yesterday, 08:49 AM)TurboLlew Wrote:
(22-05-2020, 09:25 PM)Marchand@HPFactory Wrote: So, from an informed perspective Llew, when do you think normality will return? What do the banks currently predict, as a timeline for return to pre covid 19 spending?

What we knew as normal is gone forever... from a social interaction perspective but also from an economic point of view. We might get close to it again.

Everyone is getting excited about lower interest rates... agents and dealers are punting deals and advising on what the market is doing (despite being clueless).

To answer your question, there are educated guesses at late 2023 to be back to flat (off a much lower base than now because there will be declines in 20/21/22)

The rest of the world is in a similar situation with the exception that they have structures and the right foundation to recover and return to growth. We have this misguided notion that we can somehow benefit from the global turmoil by the time we get to the end of the tunnel, but I think the past weeks have shown otherwise.

At this point though it is all speculation. The double or triple whammy we are seeing here has never quite been seen before. It isn't like a historic market crash where you can have some kind of predictability.

Prepare to lose a job and like veteran says, never be employed by a company again... not because of BEE or downsizing, but rather because companies die or exit markets like ours. Many companies I worked for over the years were burning money in SA due to potential... whitespace expansion where big brother is paying for most of the operation or accepting losses for 4 or 5 years will be a thing of the past for sure as they fix their home markets, fix their strong ones and regroup.  That doesnt mean there will be no opportunities... or you will be making zero... just that you will have to adapt to another new normal (after this covid one is in place and we deal with the aftermath).
Thanks for the insight. Very interesting
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